Updated October 12, 2026

If you still need a flight for Thanksgiving or Christmas, you may be wondering whether to book now or wait for a better deal. The answer depends on your holiday, route and flexibility… but the window for waiting is beginning to close.

Holiday airfare is already unusually expensive. Hopper estimates that the average domestic round-trip fare is $402 for Thanksgiving, up 31% from last year, and $452 for Christmas, up 23%. It describes the 2026 holiday season as the most expensive for airfare in a decade. Hopper’s 2026 Holiday Travel Index recommends booking holiday flights before Halloween as planes begin to fill.

There is little reason to assume that a large, market-wide price drop is around the corner. KAYAK’s 2026 holiday research says airfare has generally followed last year’s seasonal pattern, but at a higher price level. Meanwhile, Delta reported in October that its ticket prices had risen roughly 20% during 2026 as airlines dealt with sharply higher fuel expenses. The airline also suggested that the industry may restrict capacity further in 2027 to protect profitability. Reuters reported on Delta’s outlook on October 9.

That does not mean every fare will increase every day. Prices will fluctuate, and certain routes may still become cheaper. But waiting should be a short, deliberate strategy and not a hope that expensive holiday travel will suddenly become inexpensive. Currently, all signs and data indicate that high airline prices are here to stay for at least the next few months, if not longer.

The quick answer: Should you book now or wait?

The safest choice depends on how much flexibility you have. Use this table as a starting point, then check the current price and schedule for your route.

Your situation	Book now or wait?	What to do
Thanksgiving trip with fixed dates	Book soon	Search now and aim to book no later than the end of October. Waiting until the final two weeks is particularly risky.
Thanksgiving trip with flexible dates	Compare briefly, then book	Track prices now and compare departures on November 23, 25 and 26.
You can fly on Thanksgiving Day	Book when the fare works	November 26 is expected to be one of the cheapest and quietest days to depart.
Christmas trip with fixed dates or limited flights	Start tracking now and be ready to book	Buy when you find an acceptable fare, especially if you need a nonstop flight or several seats.
Flexible domestic Christmas trip	A short wait may be reasonable, but not too long	Track fares during the historical four-to-seven-week booking window, but do not assume a sale is guaranteed.
Flexible trip to Mexico, the Caribbean or Europe	Track now and compare carefully	Look at nearby dates and airports, but lean toward booking earlier when your route has limited service.
You found a fare that fits your budget	Book now	A known affordable fare is usually more valuable than an uncertain future reduction.
The current fare is too expensive and your dates are flexible	Wait with an alert	Set a KAYAK Price Alert and compare alternate dates, airports and two one-way tickets.
You are traveling with children or a large group	Strongly consider booking now	The risk of losing several seats together may outweigh a modest possible price reduction.

“Wait” does not mean ignoring the route until November or December. It means monitoring the fare, knowing the highest price you are willing to pay and being prepared to buy when a suitable itinerary reaches that price. (A few weeks from now at the latest.)

You can compare current fares on KAYAK and look for its Price Forecast above eligible flight-search results. If the forecast recommends waiting, set a price alert rather than trying to check the route manually every day.

When should you book Thanksgiving flights?

Thanksgiving travelers have the most urgent decision.

KAYAK found that domestic Thanksgiving fares have historically fallen from their September highs and reached their lowest level about five weeks before the holiday. In 2026, that points to approximately the week of October 19.

The important detail is what happens afterward. According to KAYAK’s Thanksgiving analysis, fares last year rose as much as 16% during the week before Thanksgiving and 21% during Thanksgiving week. KAYAK therefore recommends getting Thanksgiving flights booked before the end of October.

If your dates are fixed, there is little benefit in trying to hit the exact bottom. Search now and book once you find a flight that fits both your schedule and budget. If you are flexible and current fares seem unusually high, you can monitor them briefly—but the week of October 19 should be treated as a decision point, not the beginning of an open-ended wait.

The less expensive Thanksgiving departure dates

Changing your departure date may save more than waiting for the perfect day to purchase your ticket.

Thanksgiving itinerary	Expected better-value departure	Average 2026 round-trip airfare	Expected priciest departure	Potential savings
Domestic U.S. flight	November 23	$420	November 20	18%
International flight	November 25	$639	November 20	37%

KAYAK also expects Thanksgiving Day itself (Thursday, November 26) to be one of the least expensive and quietest travel days. Travelers who can fly that day could save as much as 19% domestically and 49% internationally compared with a November 20 departure.

These are average prices and estimated savings across many searches, not guaranteed fares for every airport or route. Still, the pattern is useful: avoiding specific days around the holiday (for example, the Friday before Thanksgiving) may matter more than waiting another week to book. In other words, choosing your travel dates carefully is what will save you the most money.

Who should book Thanksgiving flights immediately?

You should lean toward booking now if you:

• Must depart on a specific peak day
• Need a nonstop flight
• Are traveling from a small or regional airport
• Need several seats together
• Have strict arrival or departure requirements
• Are flying to a destination with limited service
• Would face substantial costs if your preferred itinerary sells out

That last point matters for travelers headed to smaller U.S. cities, Caribbean islands or European destinations with seasonal connections. A future fare reduction will not help if the only practical itinerary is no longer available.

When should you book Christmas flights?

Christmas travelers generally have more time, but they should start comparing prices now.

KAYAK’s 2026 holiday announcement says Christmas fares have historically dipped approximately four to seven weeks before departure. For many 2026 trips, that corresponds roughly to mid-November through early December.

That is a historical pattern, not a promise that every route will become cheaper. Travelers with flexible dates and several competing airlines may benefit from monitoring fares for a few weeks. Travelers with fixed school schedules, limited vacation time or only one practical flight should be more cautious.

Waiting may make sense if:

• You can move the trip by several days
• Several airlines serve your route
• You are willing to take a connection
• The available fare is well above your planned budget
• You have set a price alert and can book quickly

Booking earlier may be smarter if:

• Your dates are fixed around school or work
• You need to leave during the weekend before Christmas
• Only one or two practical itineraries exist
• You need a nonstop flight
• Several family members must travel together
• The fare is affordable and the schedule is good

The less expensive Christmas travel dates

KAYAK’s data suggests that flying closer to Christmas can cost less than leaving the weekend before it.

Christmas itinerary	Expected better-value departures	Average 2026 round-trip airfare	Expected priciest departure	Potential savings
Domestic U.S. flight	December 21–22	$469 and $466	December 19	18%
International flight	December 23–24	$1,063 and $1,024	December 18	31%–34%

Post-Christmas dates can create even larger differences. KAYAK estimates that a domestic departure on January 2 could cost up to 45% less than departing December 27. For international travel, departing December 31 could save up to 40% compared with December 26. (Flight comparison)

For a trip to Mexico, the Caribbean or Europe, also consider whether changing the trip by a day will affect lodging costs. Saving $200 on a flight is less impressive if the new itinerary requires an additional $250 hotel night.

The cheapest airfare is not always the cheapest trip

Flight-search results do not show the complete cost of a holiday trip. A cheaper itinerary may include baggage charges, seat-selection fees, a costly airport transfer or an overnight layover.

Before booking, use this calculation:

True transportation cost = airfare + baggage + seat fees + airport transportation + parking + additional lodging and meals

Consider this hypothetical comparison:

Flight option	Advertised airfare	Additional costs	True transportation cost
Convenient nonstop flight	$475	$60	$535
Lower-priced connecting flight	$395	$165	$560
Fly one day earlier	$410	$140 hotel night	$550

The $395 ticket appears to be the bargain, but it is actually the most expensive option after the additional expenses are included.

This becomes especially important for European trips where extra hotel costs add to the trip total. A fare to an alternate airport may look cheaper until you add a long train ride, checked-baggage fees and a hotel night caused by an inconvenient arrival. The same issue arises in Mexico and the Caribbean when an alternate airport requires a costly private transfer or domestic connection.

Of course, if you’re traveling for the holidays and staying with family, you won’t have added hotel costs. But keep in mind that some flight layovers may require extra fees, or even a hotel room if it’s an overnight layover. Or, perhaps there’s the cost of taking an extra day off of work? Or perhaps the extra cost of a rental car for an additional day?

Once you know the cost of reaching your destination, use our destination pages here on Budget Your Trip to estimate accommodations, meals, local transportation and sightseeing. The best holiday deal is the trip with the lowest complete cost that still meets your needs, and not necessarily the flight with the lowest number on the search screen.

How to use KAYAK to decide whether to book or wait

Check the Price Forecast

When it is available for a route, KAYAK’s Price Forecast estimates whether the fare is likely to rise or fall during the next seven days. The search results may display a “buy now” or “wait” recommendation with a confidence level.

KAYAK explains that the forecast is based on historical searches, algorithms and mathematical models. It is generally correct more often than not, but it cannot guarantee what an airline will charge. Read how KAYAK’s Price Forecast works before treating the recommendation as definitive. Search current Thanksgiving and Christmas fares on KAYAK and check whether a Price Forecast appears for your trip.

Set a Price Alert

If you decide to wait, create a KAYAK Price Alert. This turns waiting into an active strategy: you can follow the route without relying on memory or repeatedly refreshing the same search.

Set a personal deadline at the same time. For example:

• Thanksgiving: book by the end of October even if the ideal price never appears
• Christmas with flexible dates: reassess during the four-to-seven-week window
• Fixed or limited international route: book earlier if availability begins to deteriorate

Compare nearby dates

Search at least one to three days on either side of your preferred dates. Pay particular attention to:

• November 23, 25 and 26 for Thanksgiving
• December 21–24 for Christmas departures
• December 31 and January 2 for post-Christmas travel

Compare nearby airports

Travelers in large metropolitan areas should compare airports such as:

• New York: JFK, LaGuardia and Newark
• Washington: Reagan National, Dulles and Baltimore
• South Florida: Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach
• San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose
• Los Angeles: LAX, Burbank, Long Beach and Ontario

For European destinations, also compare regional gateways. However, don’t forget to add the cost and time required to reach your actual destination. A cheaper flight to London, Paris or Milan may or may not remain cheaper after the onward train or connecting flight.

Compare a round trip with two one-way tickets

KAYAK found that combining two one-way tickets, sometimes on different airlines, could save as much as 29% domestically and 30% internationally on routes included in its holiday research. Before using this approach, compare baggage policies, change rules and airports. If the tickets include a self-transfer connection, the second airline generally has no obligation to accommodate you if the first flight arrives late.

Five questions to answer before you book

Before clicking the purchase button, ask:

1. Does this fare fit the amount I planned to spend?
2. Are my dates fixed, or could moving them by one or two days produce a meaningful saving?
3. Are several good flights still available, or is availability becoming limited?
4. Would waiting put seats together, nonstop service or a convenient schedule at risk?
5. Does the cheaper itinerary remain cheaper after baggage, transportation, lodging and other expenses?

If the fare fits your budget, the itinerary works and losing it would create a problem, book it. If your dates are flexible, several flights remain available and the price is uncomfortably high, tracking the fare for a limited period can make sense.

The verdict: Book now or wait?

For Thanksgiving, start searching immediately. The historically favorable window arrives around the week of October 19, and most travelers should plan to book before the end of October. Do not wait until the final two weeks unless you are prepared to pay more or accept a less convenient itinerary.

For Christmas, begin tracking now. Flexible travelers may see better prices four to seven weeks before departure, but travelers with fixed dates, large groups or limited routes should book once an acceptable fare appears.

For Mexico, the Caribbean and Europe, availability matters as much as historical price patterns. A route with multiple daily flights offers more room to wait than a seasonal or once-daily service.

Most importantly, do not wait for the absolute lowest possible fare. Current holiday prices are already high, fuel expenses remain elevated and airlines are signaling continued restraint rather than a flood of new capacity. Individual deals will still appear, but the evidence does not support expecting holiday airfare as a whole to become cheap at the last minute.

The goal is not to win a guessing game against the airline. It is to book a workable trip at a total cost you can afford.

Compare current holiday flights on KAYAK, check the Price Forecast and set an alert if you decide to wait.